In Bexley, there have been a total of 3,927 non-Domestic Abuse related Serious Violence offences during October 2023 to September 2024. This is an 8.63% decrease compared to 4,298 offences for the same period in the previous year. The most common type of Serious Violence Crime in Bexley was 'Violence Against the Person', although this decreased by 5.74% over the two-year period. A year-on-year comparison (September 2023-October 2024 vs September 2022-October 2023) shows a decrease in all serious violence crime types, except for ‘Aggravated Burglary’, 'Arson', ‘Rape’ and 'Assault by Penetration' which saw an increase, and 'Possession of Weapon with Threat or Intent’ which remained the same. Across the three serious violence crime types that saw increases, this represented a total of 12 additional crimes, up to 133 offences from 121 the previous year.

Rape offences accounted for the majority of these, rising by 4.63% to 113. Offences have seen a 39.22% increase affecting victims aged Under 25, whilst there has been a decrease in offences affecting victims aged 25 and over of 30%. Aggravated Burglary offences almost doubled compared to last year, although these remained relatively low at a total of 13 offences. There has been an increase in those aged 25 and over being victims of this offence, with a 150% increase compared to last year. Conversely there were no reported incidents by those aged under 25. There were no reported Arson offences last year and this has risen to 4 between October 2023 and September 2024. All four offences were reported by victims aged 25 and over.

In Bexley, there have been a total of 1,959 Serious Violence offences flagged as Domestic Abuse during October 2023 to September 2024. This is a 15.23% decrease compared to 2,311 offences for the same period in the previous year. The most common category of Serious Violence flagged as Domestic Abuse was 'Violence Against the Person', with 1,233 offences, a decrease of 14.91% against the previous twelve months.

A year-on-year comparison (September 2023-October 2024 vs September 2022-October 2023) shows a decrease in all serious violence crime types, except for ‘Sexual Assault’, ‘Assault by Penetration’, ‘Aggravated Burglary’ and ‘Homicide’ which saw an increase. In Bexley, the highest number of Domestic Abuse flagged Serious Violence offences took place in around the North of the borough with Slade Green and Northend, Belvedere, Erith and Thamesmead East wards showing the most offences. There are also hotspots in Bexleyheath and a growing number of offences in Sidcup across the past two-year period.

The most common type of Sexual Violence offence in Bexley across the past 24 months is 'Sexual assault' with 173 offences during October 2023 to September 2024, a decrease of 6.99% with 186 offences in the previous twelve months. 21.4% of Sexual Violence offences were flagged as Domestic Abuse during the most recent twelve months, a decrease from 26.0% in the year previous.

Rape offences (164) and Sexual Assault offences (173) have both decreased with 187 and 186 cases reported respectively between October 2022 to September 2023. Assault by Penetration offences increased slightly to 14 (from 12 in the twelve months previous). The majority of survivors of Sexual Violence are female, although that figure has decreased from 89% to 85% recorded across both twelve-month periods. There has been a small increase in Male victims, up to 13% from 11% two years ago.

There was an increase in engagement with Solace with 477 clients engaging between October 2023 and September 2024 compared to 465 in the previous twelve months. There has been a shift in the age range of clients that have engaged with Solace, with a slight increase in over 25’s against last year’s trend. The majority of clients are female with 95% of the overall number of engaged cases.

Outcome data shows higher cessation in crisis-related abuse such as Physical or Sexual harm. This is positive as Solace are focused on reducing harmful behaviours and improving safety for survivors of Domestic Abuse. Longer term outcomes include emotional and psychological abuse trauma reducing with ongoing mental health support while stalking involves behaviour that takes a length of time to cease. Similarly, Financial abuse is also a longer-term issue and will take significant time to reduce levels of harm.

Across the two-year period being analysed for the purpose of the Strategic Needs Assessment, there has been a 48.4% decrease in the number of Serious Youth Violence offences from 31 (October 2022 - September 2023) to 16 (October 2023 - September 2024). Weapon related youth violence saw the highest number of offences across both years.

There were no Serious Violence Robbery offences during the most recent year compared to 8 in the previous year. In August 2022, the Metropolitan Police introduced a new approach with Class B Drug related offences being dealt with via Community Resolution rather than referral to the Youth Justice Service. Where Serious Youth Violence offences occurred within Bexley Borough, incidents were spread out evenly across five wards. These were Belvedere, East Wickham, Erith, Sidcup and Thamesmead East.

Perpetrator data for serious youth violence shows more males are committing offences than females with 92.9% of male offences being weapon related. 71.4% of all serious youth violence offences committed were FTEs between October 2023 and September 2024. There has been a shift in perpetrators more likely to be in the 17+ age range and there has been a significant decrease in the number of perpetrators identified as white or black ethnicity.

Snapshot data has been provided by the Probation Service as of 31 October 2024. This snapshot of data provides an indication of the local Probation cohort and offence makeup. The largest proportion (33%) of offenders known to the Probation service have committed 'Violence' related offences. The second highest offence type is 'Drug possession/supply' at 10%. The majority of offenders are male (92%), White (64%) and aged over 25 years. Analysis of criminogenic needs show that Thinking & Behaviour is the most required needs in both Community and Custody, followed by Attitudes.

There has been a 16.6% decrease in Child Protection Plans as reported on 31 March 2024, compared to the previous year. There has also been a decrease of 17.0% in 'Children in Need' for the same reporting snapshot. The most common factor in Child in Need cases is Abuse or Neglect with a decrease of 22.1% in 2024 compared to 2022. The decrease in Child Protection Plans and Children in Need reflects the impact of the work with families where children presented with complex needs around mental health, extra-familial harm, and vulnerability to both criminal and sexual exploitation, as a result of the Covid pandemic. When looking at those cases where Serious Violence is identified as a factor in assessment, there were 2,227 cases in October 2023 to September 2024, a decrease of 14.2% at 2,544 cases from the previous twelve months.

The most common factor of Serious Violence being present within an assessment was 'Domestic Abuse-Parent/Carer' with 801 in the period October 2023 to September 2024, a decrease of 23.2% against the previous twelve months (1,043). The second highest factor of Serious Violence was 'Physical Abuse of a Child by an Adult' with a decrease of 20% in the last twelve months (329) against the previous equivalent period (411). The third highest factor was Domestic Abuse towards a Child, increased 8.6% from 269 to 292.

There has been a continued increase in the number of children coming into the care of the local authority where children cannot be safely cared for within their family environment with the number increasing from 221 as of 31 March 2020, compared to 292 in 2024, an increase of 32.1%. Part of this increase also includes a number of children with complex mental health needs, behavioural needs and those at risk of exploitation where the needs can only be met within specialist local authority placements. Looked After Children cases remain consistent by gender when comparing the data from 2024 to 2023 with the highest number of children in both years being aged 10 to 15 years. The second highest age range across both years recorded is age 16 years and over.

There has been a 26.5% decrease in the number of Safeguarding Adults Enquiries during the twelve-month period from October 23 to September 24 (86 enquiries), compared to the same period in the previous year (117 enquiries). The majority of safeguarding enquiries made during both years were for concern of females (70.9% during the most recent twelve months compared to 67.5% in the previous year) and the largest proportion of enquiries received were for adults aged 25 and over (87.2% during the most recent twelve months compared to 88.0% in the previous year). Where ethnicity is known, 77.9% of enquiries made during the most recent twelve months were for adults of 'White' ethnicity, 4.7% were from 'Black' ethnic groups, 4.7% from 'Asian' ethnicity groups, 1.2% from 'Other' ethnicity groups and 1.2% from 'Mixed' ethnicity groups.

The largest proportion of enquiries made in both years were due to ‘Physical Abuse’ concerns. The second largest proportion of enquiries during the most recent twelve months was due to 'Sexual Abuse', a change from the previous twelve months where ‘Domestic Abuse’ was the second largest. There were no enquiries made in the last twelve months relating to concerns of 'Modern Slavery' or 'Sexual Exploitation', both of which were increased enquiries in the period of October 2022 to September 2023.

The number of Permanent Exclusions (PEX) from Bexley schools has risen slightly year on year since 2020/21 when the numbers were low due to school closures during the pandemic. In the academic year 2023/24, over half (51%) of permanent exclusions came from three schools. Almost 1/3 of PEX in the year 2023/24, were linked to continuous disruptive behaviour. The second highest reason for PEX is physical assault on a pupil. This reason has been consistent over the past four academic years.

The most significant emerging theme, however, is in the area of drug abuse. In 2021/22 there were seven suspensions, in 2022/23 this rose to 19 suspensions and further to 57 suspensions in 2023/24. Partnership working with Police and Health with termly events to share information is fundamental to reducing PEX for drug abuse. The highest proportion of suspensions (32%) were due to 'Continuous Disruptive Behaviour.' A total of 582 suspensions were due to 'Physical Assault - Pupil', making up 16.7% of all suspensions.

The number of Arson-related incidents has increased to 79 between June 2023 and May 2024 compared to 46 in the previous twelve months, a rise of 71.7%. For these incidents to be recorded as Arson, the Fire Investigation Team need to gather evidence and report it as such. The largest proportion of incidents were road vehicles and occurring outdoors. This classification covers small buildings such as garages, sheds and spaces such as work yards.

Please note: LFB data is only available up to and including May 2024.

The number of callouts relating to serious violence for the London Ambulance Service has seen a slight increase over the last two years with 301 callouts between October 2023 and September 2024, and 280 callouts between October 2022 and September 2023. The majority of calls were for 'Violence with Injury' with 215 callouts recorded under this category, a slight decrease from 218 in the previous year. The second highest category of calls were for Knife Related Injury with 39 incidents recorded, an increase from 31 on the previous year.

The 2024 annual Community Safety Survey saw a reduction in residents’ ratings of Bexley’s safety score from 6.18 to 6.05 (with 10 being completely safe.) A specific 2023 survey was distributed to both residents and professionals working within this sector. In the residents’ survey, no respondents felt there had been a decrease in serious violence within the local area. Residents provided a mixed response as to whether they have trust in confidence in police to deal with serious violence and feelings around safety within the local area, ranging from “very unsafe” to “somewhat safe.” 84% of respondents to the professionals’ survey for this SNA feel that serious violence has increased within the last 12 months.

No respondents feel there has been a decrease in serious violence. Most professionals commented on the police being under-resourced, and this means that thoroughness of investigations (especially if response officers are attending an incident), and proactiveness to prevent serious violence, suffers. In turn, professionals believe the public are less willing to report incidents as they do not see outcomes. Most respondents to the professionals’ survey said they feel safe in LB Bexley (83%), however 8% said they felt “somewhat unsafe” within the Bexley borough (these respondents are both female and reported feeling particularly unsafe after dark). None of the respondents from either the professionals’ survey or the residents’ survey reported being a victim of serious violence within the Bexley borough.