Risk and mitigation measures | London Borough of Bexley

Contents

13. Risk and mitigation measures

The Council has a legal requirement to set a balanced budget for 2026/27 at Council in March 2026. To achieve this, further saving, efficiency and transformation opportunities need to be identified.

Work continues by the Leader and Cabinet with Officers to identify opportunities to reduce the budget gap and where possible, reduce the pressure over the Medium Term Financial Strategy period.

The next update of the Medium Term Financial Strategy will be presented to Public Cabinet in late 2025.

The Council’s Strategic Risk Register was last reviewed at the General Purposes and Audit Committee meeting on 30 July 2024.

Strategic risk register (SRR) as of 17 July 2024

Directorate	Risk Cause and Consequence	Gross Risk Score	Current Controls / Mitigation Actions	Net Risk Score (Dec 23)	Net Risk Score (June 24)	Owned by	Date of Last Risk Review	Additional Controls Required to Mitigate Risk	Risk Progress Commentary
Finance & Corporate Services (Council wide)	Impact of inflation Cause: National and global economic factors. Effect: (i) Contract inflation on retenders leads to increased budget pressures. (ii) The Council will be affected as a consumer, an employer and a collector of taxes and discretionary and non-discretionary income. (iii) Increasing the other pressures already being faced by the Council.	Red	Commissiong Board has both an operational and a strategic focus. Board reviews contracts and contract inflation. The contract register is used to identify contracts with inflation clauses. Robust budget monitoring is in place to ensure that emerging budget pressures are identified quickly. Monitoring and triangulation of budget performance, operational activity and market position. Mitigation measures will be taken where possible to manage budget pressures. The Medium Term Financial Strategy (Public Cabinet June 2023) highlights significant inflation risk. An increase in this provision will require saving, efficiency and transformational savings to be identified within contracts or service standards to be reviewed across the medium term period. This will be in negotiation with suppliers and there is no guarantee this can be achieved. Full details of the inflation risks are provided in the published Medium Term Financial Strategy. Engaging with providers to secure best value. No Government support to the Council for the cost of inflation has been provided to date, however, this will be a lobbying point for Members and Officers along with the professional networks such as the Society of London Treasurers.	Red	Red	CLT; Caroline Holland / Nickie Morris	30/06/2022	Continue to monitor inflation level in MTFS. Deep dives and service reviews to identify potential pressure.	MTFS review. 2024/25 budget approved by Cabinet. 3Es Board instigated during Q4 2023/24. Spend Panel reviews/approves additional spend. Review of spending via payment cards. Budgetary control internal audit provided reasonable assurance. % of budget held centrally to flex when inflation pressures are known and evidenced.
Finance & Corporate Services (Council wide)	A range of market conditions and dynamics contributes to increasing financial pressures placed on the Council. Cause: (i) The Adult Social Care market is in a particularly precarious position and are applying annual fee uplifts to cover additional costs and losses. (ii) Failure to negotiate ASC service delivery spot contract fee increases within the available financial envelope. (iii) Cost of children’s residential care contracts are increasing. Effect: (i) Capacity issues within the provider market sector (linked to recruitment and retention) could lead to an inability to meet demand for services. (ii) Non-delivery of contract related savings in ASC and an over spent position. (iii) Increased expenditure and increasing loss of income streams results in unsustainable budget pressure on the Council. (iv) The Children’s High Needs Budget is in deficit.	Red	Monitoring of the market position and close working with providers to understand true costs of care. Negotiations based on 3% uplift still in progress and size of blocks being reduced where appropriate. Renegotiation of block contracts where possible/appropriate. Revisit the contract spec to contain expenditure in current financial envelope. Work with Care Providers Voice, workforce professionals and other partners to develop and implement a workforce development plan and training offer to support retention and development of existing staff and attract new staff to the care sector. Monitoring and triangulation of budget performance, operational activity and market position. Series of deep dives to take place over the course of the Summer as set out in the Medium Term Financial Strategy to consider longer term trends, interventions and scenario planning. Audit and deep dives on areas not following expected trend. Monitoring of the market position and close working with providers to understand true costs. Early notification to CLT should market position and provider demands become more unstable and require a review of fee uplifts/savings proposal. Children’s Services Financial Sustainability Plan and associated weekly reviews in place. Mitigation and tracked and reported within this. Reviews have been undertaken of CS Care & Resource Panel, High Cost and Care Leaver Panels to ensure effective oversight and scrutiny of spend. Safetyvalve programme in place to address High Needs deficit and careful monitoring and reporting is ongoing to Elected Members, CLT and DfE.			CLT; Yolanda Dennehy; Caroline Holland / Nickie Morris	30/06/2022	Aim to secure same/similar price for blocks and spots. Deep dives and service reviews to reflect changes in central government policy and funding.	Majority of homecare and care home fee negotiations finalised; some spot contract negotiations outstanding across residential care. Contracts reviewed for inflation increases.
Finance & Corporate Services (Council wide)	Increasing demand for services Cause: (i) Demand exceeds budget. (ii) Cost of living pressures. (iii) Population mobility to Bexley. (iv) Increased elderly and children’s care demand. (v) More complex care/SEND packages. Effect: (i) Higher homelessness/temporary accommodation demand. (ii) Mental health pressures; more interventions. (iii) Harder to source housing stock; landlord exits/increased rents. (iv) Increased domestic violence/ASB. (v) More with no recourse to public funds. (vi) Rising SEND demand and insufficient specialist places.	Red	Administration of the Household Support Grant provided by the Department of Work and Pensions to ensure this is as far reaching as possible to support those residents most in need. £1.54m Household Support Fund (HSF) from DWP available to help local residents until the end of September 2024. Dedicated pages on the Council website to direct residents for support on the Cost of Living and impact of inflation. Council procedures to ensure compliance with the Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 (HRA by preventing and relieving homelessness. Safety Valve programme in place; additional free school commissioned; expansion of resource bases within schools being taken forward including a new post 19 LECB facility making use of the surplus mainstream space.	Red	Red	Jane Richardson; Stephen Kitchman		Ongoing scrutiny via service reviews and deep dives. Reflect changes in central government policy/funding.	Service reviews and deep dives.
Finance & Corporate Services	Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) and Budget Monitoring NEW RISK JULY 2024 Cause: (i) Insufficient central government funding combined. (ii) Inability to achieve required savings within required timeframes or because of cost of providing statutory duties. Effect: (i) Need to issue a s117 Notice and resulting reputational damage. (ii) Inability to carry out statutory duties. (iii) Inability to achieve strategic priorities and planned change programmes. (iv) Increased overspends in some services. (iv) Debt management and cashflow issues.	Red	Balanced budget set for 2024/25 and approved by Council. Continual updating of MTFS and continued monitoring of budgets to reflect changes to external and internal factors. Contingency fund available for allocation as required or for bids in Q3. 3 Es (Economy, Efficiency and Effectiveness) Board meet twice per month and carry out service reviews. Spend Panel also operated. Multivariate stress testing of MTFS for current year and going concern period of 18 months. Information updated with data from Valuation Office every September. Assumption made re non-recovery of debts and known changes including development schemes. Stress testing is reviewed by external audit as part of VfM work. Financial Regulations and Contract Rules. Appropriately qualified staff. Routine budget monitoring across departments. Increased scrutiny of budgets of Directorates and functions at risk of significant overspend e.g. Children’s Services and Adult Social Care. Regular reporting to Council. Annual Treasury Management report and quarterly Debt reports to General Purpose and Audit Committee. Capital budgets.	Red	Red	Caroline Holland; Nickie Morris		Enhanced linking between strategic planning, financial planning and business outcomes. Reviews of options for savings to be completed. Other options and one off options to be identified and considered. Plans to be revised once new government’s policies are known.	MTFS is reported to every Public Cabinet ex except April. Every new iteration is revised to reflect new known information.
Adult Social Care & Health / Children’s Services	Vulnerable adults in the Borough are not adequately protected. Cause: (i) Financial pressures on ASC providers to reduce costs leads to increased risks to vulnerable adults of abuse. (ii) : Reduced ASC staff leads to limited quality assurance of providers or following up safeguarding adults enquiries and longer waits for interventions to ensure risks are minimised appropriately. (iV) Early discharge from hospital and reduced hours of NHS mental health services. (iv) Flu vaccination, and other immunisations, screening programmes (cancer, others) reduced or not being done in Primary Care. Effect (i) Death or serious harm to a vulnerable adult. (ii) Investigation by Care Quality Commission. (iii) Reputational damage and reduced confidence in service. (iii) Coroners Court inquest. (iv) Safeguarding Adults Review investigation. (v) Legal action.		A comprehensive workforce strategy and associated action plan is in place. Regular review of staffing levels against demand. A business case has been approved for additional capacity to meet need. Staffing used flexibly across the highest need to ASC and funding will be used to support these discharges. On going contact to those on the waiting list for assessment to ensure most urgent needs are being met in a timely manner. Prioritising those at high risks and/or with safeguarding concerns. Continual communication with partners and monitoring of proposed and actual discharges to ensure acuity is managed for maximum safety of staff and clients. Discharge funding to meet short term increased in demand. Performance monitoring and audit of safeguarding enquiries. Increased capacity in the Quality Assurance Team associated with ASC Pathways. Monitoring of the market position and close working with providers. Publication of statistics at local and central levels. A Priority Action Plan (PAP) is in place and this is tracked through refreshed Governance arrangements. Safeguarding Adults Board. Serious Adult Case Reviews. Modelling of demand and service deep dives.			Yolanda Dennehy		Delivery of the priority action plan by Sept 2025. Deep dives and service reviews to be constantly refreshed. Consider impact of changes to Fair Cost of Care funding.	Positive outcomes from recruitment plans has seen a reduction in dependency on agency staffing.
Finance & Corporate Services	The Council fails its duty of care, compliance with statutory regulation and HSE responsibilities (Corporate Estate). Cause: (i) Absence of an effective maintenance regime inc adequate policies and procedures. (ii) Absence of a a robust building compliance framework that includes accurate and complete building compliance information. (iii) Repairs and maintenance, including servicing not completed. (iv) Landlord/ occupier/leaseholder responsibilities not adhered to. Effect: (i) Unable to use or loss of buildings. (ii) Staff, visitors, contractors and members of the public suffer harm, injury or death. (iii) Intervention and sanctions by HSE. (iv) Reputational damage.	Amber	A programme of improvement in Property & Facilities Management is ongoing, focussed on improvement compliance reporting, systems and processes and consolidation. Work is also focussed on ensuring housing conditions are compliant with the Housing Act 2004, with a project ensuring that housing quality standards are sufficient (including damp and mould issues). ISO450001 accreditation for Health and Safety maintained. Ongoing monitoring of maintenance and servicing scheduling.	Amber	Red	Nickie Morris		Full integration of a Corporate Landlord model is to be completed with the final stage being to consolidate budgets to be managed corporately. Complete stock condition surveys to inform a 5 year capital programme. Finalise and implement new fire, legionella, asbestos, gas, electricity, and lifts h&s policies. Implement IA recommendations.	Drafting of new fire, legionella, asbestos, gas, electricity, and lifts h&s policies. Internal audit review of fire safety and asbestos control.
Finance & Corporate Services	Cyber-attack and data breaches. Cause: (i) IT infrastructure failure/lack of resilience. (ii) Malware/ransomware/DDOS attacks or other exploitation of ICT vulnerabilities. (iii) Lack of controls on 3rd party activities i.e., monitoring of contracts, compliance with information sharing agreements. (iv) Lack of staff awareness, human error, improved sophistication of cyber hacking methods. Effect: (i) Inability to deliver some or all services for a period of time. (ii) Temporary or permanent loss of data, sensitive data published online, breach of GDPR. (iii) Financial penalties and legal action. (iv) Disconnect from PCN and inability to access / share data with other organisation. (v) Significant financial loss. (vi) Reputational damage.	Red	Penetration testing of system security undertaken annually, both external and internally facilitated. Suite of employee focused Information Governance policies PSN and PCIDSS accreditation. General security controls that includes device encryption, user access controls for email, remote access and stronger controls for admin level access. Systems patching and updates. Firewall updates and reviews. Risk information obtained from NCSC, support companies and industry news. Windows defender installed. Monitoring via AlienVault and SOC - early warning Forcepoint for web and email filtering - early warning NCSC - Early warning and DMARC monitoring Member of Isfl and IGFL. Robust disaster recovery and Business Continuity Plans are in place. Staff provided with Information and guidance on phishing e-mails, ransomware. Staff induction training.	Amber	Red	Caroline Holland / Gemma Springham	12/07/2024	Obtain and maintain Cyber Essentials certification that provides: Firewalls, secure configurations, security update management. user access control. malware protection. Ensure key suppliers comply with Cyber Essentials. Ensure all contracts include standard contract terms re cyber controls. Testing of business continuity plan. Obtain ISO27001.	Action plan in production for CLT consideration 13/09/2024.
Children’s Services	Vulnerable children in the Borough are not adequately protected. Cause: (i) Childrens’ Services caseloads have been higher due to staffing changes and vacancies. (ii) Risk is underestimated or not identified. (iii) Referrals not made to Social Services and support not offered. (iv) Assessments not good quality. (v) Safety plans become out of date or are not followed. (vi) Noncompliance with agreed procedures. (vii) Protective orders not obtained in a timely way. Effect: (i) Preventable incident to the wellbeing of a child. (ii) A child known to Children’s Services dies or suffers serious harm or injury. (iii) Legal and regulatory action. (iv) Investigations and adverse media reports, poor reputation. (v) Poor staff morale.	Red	Workforce strategy and associated action plan to ensure suitable numbers of registered social workers in place. CS caseload risk mitigated by creation of additional posts across the service. Regular review of staffing levels against demand. Ongoing training offer in place and reviewed and monitoring of take up. Service plans in place, reviewed and updated for each area of CSC. Clear multi-agency safeguarding arrangements in place across the partnership supported by training , procedures and oversight. SHIELD Safeguarding Partnership in place with clear reporting and annual plan. Partnership work with the charity SHIFT.	Red	Amber	Stephen Kitchman
Council wide	Staffing, prioritisation and ability to recruit and retain. Cause: (i) Insufficient managerial or workforce capacity. (ii) Aging workforce and lack of effective succession planning. (iii) Local recruitment of staff using processes that are not compliant with Bexley’s approved HR processes. Effect: (i) Council unable to deliver services in an effective and safe manner. (ii) Existing staff put under significant pressure, leading to increased sickness levels and lower morale. (iii) Loss of skilled workforce and corporate knowledge, (iv) Reputational damage. (iv) Less time available for management, training and staff enrichment activities.	Amber	Workforce Strategy approved Apr 2024. Restructured HR & OD incl. new OD posts; HR partnering model. Timely recruitment; creative strategies for hard-to-fill posts. Use of agency/interims to cover vacancies/absence (may be unfunded). HR procedures incl. ED&I and pay scales with market supplements. Development/training and reorg to manage resources. Induction and other training programmes. Apprentices/trainees. Workforce Development plans for recruitment/retention/career pathways. Performance, Wellbeing & Development appraisals. Early CLT notification if demand requires capacity review. Performance indicators; workforce engagement; exit interviews.	Amber	Amber	CLT	10/06/2024	People Strategy with clear success measures. New HR operating model with performance measures. Head of Corporate HR to be member of DLTs.	People Strategy approved by Cabinet. HR restructure and OD staff recruited. Matrix used for temporary recruitment.
Council wide	Bexley receives a negative Inspection report. (Ofsted and CQC review of SEND) Cause: (i) Lack of resources due to BAU pressures or relevant expert knowledge results in poor preparedness. (ii) Poor partnership governance and working arrangements. Effect: (i) Council subject to improvement notices. (ii) Expensive and time consuming improvement plans increase budgetary pressure and ability to deliver BAU. Performance will be impacted by the risks identified above. Statutory Inspections (e. CQC, Ofsted) are likely to result in a reduced performance outcome.	Amber	Officers continue to mitigate through a targeted traded service offer, a focus on narrowing disadvantaged and SEN gaps as well as delivering on the assessment moderation for Key Stage 2. Officers are focusing on consistent school attendance, inclusion issues, Quality First teaching for children with SEND and support for curriculum leadership at secondary level. They are also working with partners around Maths, English and Curriculum quality for Primary schools. Officers will need to continue to advocate for local school improvement support through teaching school hubs; review achievement outcomes as shared with the Local Authority. Ofsted/CQC SEND Area Inspection Scrutiny Sub-Group.	Amber	Amber	CLT	10/06/2024	Implement and deliver assurance programme.	Autism Strategy. SEND and Preparing for Adulthood Strategy approved by Cabinet 11/07/2024. Safety Valve Intervention and Support Programme Scrutiny Project Sub-Group Interim Report and Recommendations presented to Children's Services And Education Overview And Scrutiny Committee, 19/06/2024. Assurance programme to ensure compliance with regulator’s requirements.
Children’s Services	Two Academies to exit PFI Contracts in 2029/30 NEW RISK July 2024 Cause: (i) PFI agreements are SOPC 2 ie early versions which contain ambiguity regarding roles and responsibilities of parties at contract end. (ii) Complexity of process and time required for managing the end of PFI contracts. (iv) SPV will dissolve at the end of the contract. (v) SPV’s lender (Nationwide) will exit 2 years before contract end. (vi) Lack of current stock condition. (vii) FM company becomes insolvent and wound up. Effect: (i) Failure to secure value for money during the expiry negotiations with the private sector. (ii) Costly contract disputes and risk mitigation activities eg survey/ asset condition information. (iii) Considerable time, resources and costs associated with legal process. (iv) Increased costs and service disruptions. (v) Assets returned in poor condition. (vi) FM company dissolved or ceases to trade.		PFI ‘Bible’ in place. School Agreements in place that outline LB Bexley and Academies responsibilities regarding the PFI contracts. School asset transferred to Academies prior to PFI contract and the new asset built via the PFI contact will transfer to the ownership of the academy. The Infrastructure and Projects Authority’s PFI Centre of Excellence established the PFI Contract Management Programme in 2020 to support contracting authorities managing their PFI contracts through the operational and expiry phases. The IPA health check was recently completed. IPA’s White Fraiser report used to identify risks and mitigations. Assets/components to be transferred with 5 year of expected economic life. Asset register in place. Updated financial model. One Academy commissioned a condition survey 8 years before contract end date. Borough Surveyor has an expert knowledge of the PFI contracts and will spend 2.5 days per week managing the Council’s responsibilities re the PFI contacts. Potential to withhold unitary charge (value approx. £1.5m) for 18 months prior to contract end date.		Amber	Stephen Kitchman; Legal team		3Es Board received PFI Exit paper. Borough Surveyor to request condition survey earlier than 28 months before contract end date.	District Surveyor has detailed knowledge of the PFI contracts operating at the two Academies and provides guidance to both.
Children’s Services	Safety Valve NEW RISK July 2024 Cause: (i) Non-compliance with the terms and conditions of the Dedicated Schools Grant ‘Safety Valve’ Agreement including reporting requirements. (ii) “Statutory override” of standard accounting rules, which let DSG deficits off the general revenue books will end in March 2026, Effect: (i) the Council does not receive the programmed Dedicated School Grant. (ii) Council unable to achieve a balanced budget and overspend reduction targets not met. (iii) Increased numbers of SEND tribunal appeals and Ombudsman cases. (iv) Increased period of statutory override. (v) Use of reserves required to achieve sustainability.	Amber	A Safety Valve programme has been agreed and is actively delivering to reduce demand for EHCP requests and meet need at an earlier stage. Risk register as are in place and tracked for both the PAP and Safety Valve. The Safety Valve Programme is also providing opportunities to slow down the growth in EHCPs and the additional 4 case officers, 2 review officers and a new supervisor post will assist with the growing caseload and the associated risks that this brings. The team are working with schools and other partners, so they can engage with children to identify potential issues and mitigate the risk, to ensure that children's needs are prioritised. This also ensures referrals remain focused on safeguarding concerns and need for support, and are appropriate. Work underway to improve SEND data. Regular review of placement costs to ensure best vfm. Use of DfE financial monitoring template. Monitoring information required by DfE is submitted.	Amber	Amber	Stephen Kitchman; Kevin Taylor		Child protection plans/ looked after children/ care leavers will be risk assessed and prioritised if staffing levels drop significantly and the most at-risk children prioritised.	Autism Strategy. SEND and Preparing for Adulthood Strategy approved by Cabinet 11/07/2024. Safety Valve Intervention and Support Programme Scrutiny Project Sub-Group Interim Report and Recommendations presented to Children's Services And Education Overview And Scrutiny Committee, 19/06/2024.
Council wide	Bexley’s population and environment are adversely impacted by climate change and environmental hazards and damage. Casuse: (i) Global and regional climate change. (ii) Use of hazardous materials. (iii) The built environment. (iv) Industrial and agricultural activities. (v) Pollution inc air pollution. (vi) Aged wastewater network. (vii) London heat island effect. Effect: (i) Degradation of natural environment. (ii) Increased risk of flooding. (iii) Adverse impact on health of Bexley’s residents. (iv) Reputational and regulatory impact on not achieving national goals.	Amber	Climate Change Statement and Action Plan 2022 to 2026. PMO monitor Climate Change Action Plan quarterly. Bexley’s Local Plan includes environmental and climate change issues and policies to optimise benefits whilst mitigating risks. Bexley’s Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Level 1. Household waste and recycling collection policy. Bexley Green Points scheme operated to promote recycling. Tree planting programme for 1000 trees was successfully completed. Programme of energy efficiency improvements to Bexley’s properties in the corporate estate. Programme of recycling and other waste reduction activities in corporate properties. Bexley website provides information on actions residents can take to tackle climate change. Bexley is supporting Everwarm’s scheme to deliver energy efficiency upgrades to homes with off-gas heating systems through its local Home Upgrade Grant Phase 2 (HUG 2) project. Climax Community’s Climate Essentials carbon management platform is promoted to local businesses.	Amber	Amber	CLT	July 2024	Draft climate change risk register to be developed. First annual climate change statement and action plan progress report to CLT on 8 August 2024. Refresh of Climate Action Plan. All Council directorates to review and update the Climate Change Action Plan and identify additional actions.	All council vehicles below 3.5 tonnes meet Euro 4 (NOx) standard if petrol driven and Euro 6 (NOx) standard if diesel driven. All Council vehicles over 3.5 tonnes meet Euro VI (NOx and PM). Completed March 2024. Recycling boxes replaced by wheeled bins. Leverage new external funding opportunities such as UKSPF to help residents acquire new skills and retrain into good jobs with strong green credentials. Climate Change Action Plan report to Place Overview and Scrutiny Committee on 6 Feb 2024.
Children’s Services	Learning and Enterprise College Bexley (LECB) NEW RISK July 2024 Cause: (i) Funding agencies do not articulate any relaxations early in the academic financial year cycle that they operate. (ii)Rising costs, both in terms of staff salaries and non-staff costs. (iii) drop-off in participation rates, particularly amongst 18-year-olds. (iv) ) removal of funding from some Level 3 qualifications that rival T levels. (v) Pressures in the wider economy are expected to continue which will reduce learner disposable income. Effect: (i) Grant clawback for under-performance against allocation. (ii) Council is unable to achieve a Balanced Budget 2024/25 (in year pressure).	Amber	LECB Board meets regularly and activity, budget and mitigation are standing items. LECB is currently rated by Ofsted as Good (last inspection March 2020). Annual self-assessment report by Officers judging outcomes against national averages and historic college trends. 2022/23 self-assessment achievement outcomes were the highest the college has ever attained and 3.5% above the national average. The college’s overall performance continues to be self-assessed as Good. Quality Improvement Plan and risk register are in place and the College is having independent audits. As at October 2023, LECB had received £46,148 in fees for the 306 enrolments, of which 34 are for courses planned later in the year. Delivery costs to date equates to £23,340 giving a potential contribution rate of 49% to support the wider running costs of the College.		Green	Kevin Taylor; Stephen Kitchman		LECB achieving a balanced budget.	LECB is participating in the Local London Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) which is split in to three projects: Project 1 Digital Connectivity and Digital Skills, Project 2 Local London Green Academies Partnership and Project 3 Project and programme management and centralised activities. New SEND initiative provides Marlborough Specialist School pupils with post-19 education and support packages which enables students with complex needs to remain within Borough. Courses developed to benefit from the government’s Multiply is funding to March 2025.

Budget risks include:

Risk	Mitigation Measure
The Council Tax increase for 2026/27 is not agreed by Budget Council in March 2026	Continued briefings and reporting to Public Cabinet on the Council’s financial position setting out the challenge and risk
The grant assumptions in the strategy are inaccurate being either over or understated	Assumptions consider previous grant levels and known changes Officers continue to horizon scan for further grant information and compare with planning assumptions used by others
NHS Discharge from hospital funding is not continued	If NHS discharge funding is removed the corresponding expenditure reduction/activity reduction will need to be made
Green Waste collection becomes a statutory service, free at the point of delivery	Lobby Government to provide appropriate funding mechanisms
The NJC pay award is agreed in excess of the proposal put forward by The National Employers in all or each of the financial years within the Medium Term Financial Strategy	The Council continues to participate through its Member and Officer networks to support the NJC pay award discussions. Through the Medium Term Financial Strategy process, we will be working to address any additional gaps and pressures if the pay award is agreed above the proposal by The National Employers
The number of Council Tax Reduction Scheme applicants increases	Monthly reports provided by Revenue and Benefit Service split between working age and non-working age Government and Council strategies in place to support residents to move into paid employment
Saving, efficiency, mitigations and transformational opportunities are not delivered to the scale and timescale planned	Management roles and responsibilities clearly defined including monitoring of agreed opportunities Reporting of delivery of saving, efficiency, mitigations and transformational opportunities to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members. Methodologies defined to show how it will be evidenced that saving, efficiency and transformational opportunities have been achieved and any impact on service outcomes and outputs
Emerging pressures through increased expenditure and shortfall in income are not controlled	Management roles and responsibilities are clearly defined including budget management Reporting of budget monitoring to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members Mitigation of emerging issues by stopping, pausing spend New finance system in place from 1 April 2021 to improve financial reporting and control
Demographic changes lead to an increase in demand in services which exceed those assumed in the Medium Term Financial Strategy	Management roles and responsibilities are clearly defined including budget management Reporting of budget monitoring to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members Planning assumptions for demographic demand are modelled periodically and the strategy updated, and interventions put in place to reduce demand Early reporting of financial risks which cannot be maintained by the service for Corporate intervention
Demand for Council services which generate income reduces	Management roles and responsibilities are clearly defined including budget management Reporting of budget monitoring to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members Expenditure to be reduced to offset pressures in income and mitigate financial risk
The reduced level of budget does not allow the Council to meet its statutory obligations	The Corporate Leadership Team, Extended Leadership Team and Heads of Service have and will continue to be included and consulted on budget saving, efficiency and transformational changes as they are developed
The collection for Business Rates and Council Tax does not stabilise or begin to improve in 2025/26	The Council will continue to do all it can do to collect income due for Business Rates and Council Tax Reporting of the collection rate through the management teams and into Members monthly
The budget reductions have an adverse impact on service provision over and above that envisaged	Methodologies defined to show how it will be evidenced that saving, efficiency and transformational opportunities have been achieved, and the impact is in line with that envisaged Performance indicators refreshed to ensure they are aligned to the Council’s priorities and are monitored monthly through Directorate Leadership Teams and the Corporate Leadership and reported to Members Monitoring of customer complaints to understand trends in service areas
Contract inflation on retenders increases budget pressures	Contract specifications revisited where appropriate to contain expenditure within current financial envelope Renegotiation of block contracts where possible / appropriate
Suppliers of the Council are unable to operate in the current economic climate leading to supplier failure	Contract monitoring of all contracts in place, including risk review with suppliers on a regular basis
The Council is unable to determine the current economic situation and the impact of the current cost of living crisis on the housing market and the impact on businesses and residents’ debt levels	Monitoring of financial performance on income payable to the Council and service managers reducing expenditure and putting mitigations in place Performance monitoring on services and mitigations put in place Continued lobbying to Government on continuation of business support schemes
An increased number of homelessness presentations, increasing the demand for housing and pressure on budgets	Reporting of budget monitoring to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members Lobby Government to provide appropriate funding mechanisms
Insufficient reserves to ensure Council is a going concern	Reporting of budget monitoring to Directorate Management Teams, the Corporate Leadership Team and Members and monitoring of mitigating actions
Recruitment and Retention – a shortage of suitably qualified and experienced candidates	Developed a Bexley People Strategy, bringing together workforce planning with actions to improve the culture of the organisation, enabling the Council to attract, retain, grow its own and develop an efficient, diverse and inclusive workforce. This includes making best use of the apprenticeship levy and minimising the repayment. This was signed off at Public Cabinet in April 2024 and launched in June. Invested in and reshaping Human Resources to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of recruitment processes and deliver workstreams set out in the People Strategy to improve attraction and retention; and ensuring that the advertising of roles is effective and attractive, and working with services to ensure that applicants are reviewed and considered as quickly as possible. Keeping under review the remuneration packages for key roles.
IFRS 9 statutory accounting override could negatively or positively impact the general fund outturn in 2026/27	This consultation has concluded, and the final date is 31 March 2025
Schools failing to agree to contribute from their budgets towards the Safety Valve Programme	Effective communication with Schools Forum and engagement in the process and delivery of mitigations which benefit children in mainstream schools. application to the Secretary of State for disapplication of the funding rules to enable the transfer to Safety Valve to progress without Schools Forum approval
Statutory Override for Dedicated Schools grant not being extended beyond 31 March 2026	Await further government guidance and consideration of deficit against future reserves
School’s balances going into deficit	Ongoing monitor of the budget position of maintained schools. Provide support and advice to schools in deficit or at risk of deficit to assist in identifying any efficiency or income-generating opportunities to return to surplus in the medium-term
New guidance from the Department for Education (December 2023) will result in additional cost of arranging education for children who do not attend school due to health needs	Look at options around a central education hub which would provide the alternative teaching and would also have a clear focus on transitioning children back to an ordinary school setting very promptly
Increase in National Insurance for council and service providers not being fully funded	Continue to monitor, lobby central government and work with service providers to minimise contract increases
Impact of Funding Reform and Business Rates reset	Continue to monitor, lobby central government on reforms and transitional relief